Every now and then the UFC delivers a pay-per-view event that just feels special. When a card headlined by arguably the greatest UFC fighter of all time emanates from the world’s most famous arena, that would be a perfect example. UFC 309 will brings some of the best fighters in the world back to Madison Square Garden this weekend.
The heavyweight champ and possibly the most dominant UFC fighter in history will make his long awaited return to defend his crown against one of the best heavyweight champs ever. Plus, a lightweight rematch is sure to deliver some fireworks and one of the fastest rising middleweights will face his toughest challenge yet.
Middleweight bout: Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig
It’s not every day you see a -1100 betting favorite in the UFC. That is the current line for Bo Nickal, whose resume warrants such huge odds. Nickal is a perfect 6-0 with four submissions and two knockouts. The 28-year-old has smashed his way through ever opponent, seeing the second round only once. That instance came in his most recent outing, in which he submitted Cody Brundage. Nickal is a very well-rounded fighter with a very strong grappling game. Look for him to smother his opponent with pressure and look for yet another finish.
Paul Craig is without a doubt the toughest test for Nickal to date. The UFC veteran sports a 17-8-1 record with 13 submissions. He has faced off with some of the best, including Shogun Rua, Magomed Ankalaev and Khalil Rountree. Craig is a very tough grappler in his own right amd his incredible strength makes him a submission threat at all times. Lately though, Craig has struggled, dropping four of his last five fights. This is a huge opportunity for him to turn things around and start building for one last run at a championship.
My pick: Nickal via third round knockout
Lightweight bout: Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler
We have a fight of the year candidate on our hands here. In a rematch from their 2021 classic, former Lightweight Champion Charles Oliveira will be looking to get back in the win column against Michael Chandler. Oliveira boasts an impressive 34-10 record with 21 submissions and 10 knockouts. He had one of the most impressive win streaks in recent memory, taking out Tony Ferguson, Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje along the way. Another win included in that streak with a knockout of Chandler. Oliveira’s grappling is world class (evidenced by his 21 submission victories) but his striking game has also improved greatly, making him dangerous wherever this fight goes.
And speaking of dangerous, Chandler is the classic “throw caution to the wind” kind of fighter who looks for a finish every time he steps into the octagon. While that approach has made him incredibly popular because he is so much fun to watch, it has also led to him dropping three of his last four fights. Granted, those three losses came in classics against Oliveira, Gaethje and Poirier, but Chandler is in desperate need of a win here. It will be interesting to see if he is willing to change up his style and fight a bit more cautiously as he looks to right the ship. That being said, I wouldn’t bet on it. Expect this to be the fight of the night.
My pick: Oliveira via third round submission
Heavyweight Championship bout: Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic
Randy Couture, Brock Lesnar, Daniel Cormier. These are some of the names that come to mind when thinking of the greatest UFC heavyweights of all time. Of course, Stipe Miocic is also on that list, and when talking about the greatest of all time, Jon Jones is a name that will always come up. Now, these two get to stake their claim for that title in Madison Square Garden. It would be tough to come up with a bigger moment in MMA than this.
Jon Jones’ story is known. He was one of the most dominant light heavyweight champions the sport has ever seen, tearing his way through the division one challenger at a time. Then he ran into some issues outside the octagon that derailed his career for some time. Last year, he made his long awaited return to capture the heavyweight title in his first fight in this weight class, looking just as dominant as ever. Now, he will look to solidify himself has the heavyweight king. Jones sports an unparalleled 27-1 record, with that one loss coming on a questionable disqualification early on in his UFC career. Jones’ length combined with his skills in every facet of the game make him the most dominant fighter of all time and he will look to maintain that title along with his heavyweight crown in this one.
Of all the accolades Jones and all of those aforementioned heavyweight champs have on their resumes, no one has ever successfully defended the heavyweight title more times than Miocic. With a 20-4 record and 15 knockouts, his resume speaks for itself. The former champ has some of the best hands the division has ever seen, with enough skills hin his grappling game to win a trilogy over Cormier, perhaps the greatest wrestler in the history of the class. The key for Miocic is going to be to get inside the reach of Jones and let his hands go, while simultaneously defending takedown attempts. It will also be interesting to see if Miocic has to shake off any ring rust, with his last fight being all the way back in 2021. This should be a very exciting matchup with a whole lot on the line.
My pick: Jones via 4th round submission
UFC 309 will be held Saturday, November 16 at 10 PM ET. ESPN+ subscribers can order the pay per view for $79.99.