Variety’s Andrew Wallenstein tweeted some results of a Raymond James survey regarding interest in the upcoming Disney+ streaming service.
As you can see, 24% of respondents are either “very likely” or “moderately likely” to sign-up. This would put Disney+ behind the actual usage of Netflix, Amazon, YouTube, and Hulu, but ahead of every other streaming service.
If you correlate the numbers between the subscribers of Netflix in the United States, the survey appears to project16 million subscribers will sign up for Disney+. That is just a hair under what TEA projects Disneyland attendance was in 2017. What does that mean in terms of revenue? While we do not know the price of the service, we do know that it will be lower than Netflix which starts at $7.99 per month. If we presume that the service will match ESPN+ price of $4.99 per month, the service would bring in $1,137,720,000 in revenue per year.
Another thing that we do not know the costs of running the service, as there will be significant infrastructure and programming expenses. We also don’t have complete transparency on what Disney got paid by Netflix, which they are giving up to go their own way. This makes an income projection nearly impossible at this stage.
These calculations are based on the assumption that is that everyone who says they are likely to sign-up will sign-up and those that say they are unlikely won’t. We also do not know what the awareness level is for the service amongst the general population. With just teases of original content and no marketing, more people may sign-up once they see what will be available on the service. The general public may also not realize that some of the content they get from Netflix, such as the latest movies, will no longer be available on the service. Netflix faced backlash in recent days when it was hinted that Friends will no longer be available in 2019. They ended up making a one-year deal with WarnerMedia, but the series will also be available on Warner’s upcoming streaming offering. The same will not be true for Disney+, which will have full control of most of Disney’s library (classic Star Wars films being one notable exception).
These numbers also presume straight subscriptions. With ESPN+, they eventually bundled their ESPN Insider program with the streaming service. It is unknown if Disney will try a similar strategy, perhaps bundling it together with other offerings such as Annual Passports or D23 memberships. This could cause a lift in subscribers as they would automatically be signed up without having to have the initiative to sign up.
There is no question that Netflix will still be the streaming king, at least for the short-term. Amazon has their service bundled with the popular Prime offering and YouTube is free. But Disney is projected to have significantly more subscribers than HBO Now and CBS All Access and even more users than iTunes.
So what does this mean? Considering not a single marketing dollar has been spent, I would think that Disney would be pleased. Marketing and a successful launch will be key, but there already is significant interest. AT&T stock was recently upgraded after they pitched their streaming strategy to investors. While this survey did not ask about their projected subscribers, one must imagine that it would be lower than Disney+ will be.
Without actual numbers, it is impossible to figure out how Disney+ will contribute to the bottom line, but I project that Wall Street will be encouraged by initial interest. Disney is scheduled to reveal their vision for their future at an Investor Conference in April. I will be keen to see what happens to Disney stock in light of this survey and after Disney shares their plans.