ABC Progress Report: The Race to First Cancelled

It’s been an interesting season so far over on ABC. While nothing has been pulled from air like last year’s Manhattan Love Story, many of the network’s new fall shows are now seeing additional episodes ordered or, in some cases, getting their orders trimmed. So how does it look for these freshman programs (and our predictions) and will there be an official first canceled?

To assist me in this progress report, I’ll be using data from TV by the Numbers — my trusted source for all things Neilsen. TV by the Numbers employs The Cancellation Bear who looks at the ratings for all network shows and estimates their chances for renewal. I will share his current thoughts on each show (except Wicked City which just premiered). We’ll also look back at the LP crew’s predictions we cast before the season began. Let’s get started:

The Muppets return to prime time with a contemporary, documentary-style show. For the first time ever, a series will explore the Muppets’ personal lives and relationships, both at home and at work, as well as romances, breakups, achievements, disappointments, wants and desires.

Predictions:

Doobie: Miss
FanBoy: Hit
Alex: Hit
Kyle: Hit

Status: Full season ordered (16 episodes is a full season apparently)

Cancellation Bear Standings: Toss Up

Summation: The Muppets started off strong, but ratings have fallen in the weeks since. Last week it was up slightly, hitting a 1.4 and attracting over 4.3 million viewers. While it’s encouraging that the show was given more episodes and many of us Disney geeks (Doobie excluded) are hopeful for a second season, this honestly could go either way.

Billy and Cody Lefever dream of a new life and move to “The Bakken” in North Dakota, booming after the biggest oil discovery in American history. They’re soon pitted against a ruthless tycoon who forces them to put everything on the line, including their marriage.

Predictions:

FanBoy’s Pick for 1st Cancelled

Doobie: Miss
FanBoy: Miss
Alex: Miss
Kyle: Miss

Status: Order cut to 10 episodes

Cancellation Bear Standings: Sure bet to be cancelled

Summation: FanBoy predicted this to be the first show cancelled and, technically, I think he’s won. By trimming the show’s initial (and standard) 13 episode order down to 10, ABC will have burned off all of the episodes of the low-rated drama by the new year. If nothing this season gets pulled off the air outright (I’m looking at you, Wicked City), let the record show that this was the first ABC program to get the axe.

A diverse group of recruits has arrived at the FBI Quantico Base for training. They are the best, the brightest and the most vetted, so it seems impossible that one of them is suspected of masterminding the biggest attack on New York City since 9/11.

Predictions:

Doobie: Hit
FanBoy: Hit
Alex: Miss
Kyle: Hit

Status: Additional episodes ordered

Cancellation Bear Standings: Likely to be renewed

Summation: Perhaps Blood & Oil‘s ratings wouldn’t look so bad if its Sunday night companion, Quantico, didn’t do so well by comparison. The last episode dipped slightly but held onto over five million viewers, building on its Blood & Oil lead in which only had 3.7 million. That should be enough for it to get a second season, but next year will be the true test for the Shondaland-esque drama.

Doctor turned actor/comedian Ken Jeong plays Dr. Ken, a brilliant physician with no bedside manner. He is always trying to be a good doctor, as well as a good husband and dad to his two kids. Luckily, his therapist wife Allison is just the right partner to keep things sane.

Predictions:

Doobie’s Pick for 1st Cancelled

Doobie: Miss
FanBoy: Miss
Alex: Miss
Kyle: Hit

Status: Full season ordered

Cancellation Bear Standings: Likely to be renewed

Summation: Want to know something shocking? Dr. Ken had more viewers last week than any of the other shows on this list. Last Friday night, the doctor had nearly six million patients tune into his multi-cam sitcom. It seems that Ken has proved the perfect partner for veteran Last Man Standing and its chart indicates a second season is likely.

Wicked City follows a unique case set in a noteworthy era of L.A. history, starting with a murder case from 1982 centered on the rock ’n’ roll, cocaine-infused revelry of the Sunset Strip. Alliances are formed to solve a serial murder case.

Predictions:

Alex’s Pick for 1st Cancelled

Kyle’s Pick for 1st Cancelled

Doobie: Hit
FanBoy: Miss
Alex: Miss
Kyle: Miss

Status: N/A

Cancellation Bear Standings: N/A

Summation: Perhaps instead of “N/A” I should have put “D.O.A..” Wicked City was a late starter for the fall season and just debuted this past Tuesday. While it seems silly that Alex and I both chose a show premiering over a month after the rest of the slate to be the first cancelled, our gamble was justified when the first episode garnered fractional ratings (0.9), with little over 3.2 million people watching it. This show was only given a 10 episode order to begin with and is apparently another “anthology series,” meaning this story is self-contained in a single season (ala America Crime, American Horror Story, or the upcoming American Crime Story). Because of this, it may be hard to pull the show early, but, if ratings go much lower, ABC might not have a choice.

While nothing is official yet and we still have all the midseason shows to go, here’s an estimated look at how the LP crew is scoring so far*:

Doobie: 2 correct
FanBoy: 3 correct
Alex: 2 correct
Kyle: 4 correct

*Since The Muppets is still a toss up, I won’t count it either way for now. However, let’s assume Wicked City is as good as dead.

Currently, it looks like FanBoy will pull out a “first cancelled” victory for picking Blood & Oil, but don’t count me or Alex out as Wicked City could still get murdered in a couple of weeks.

So what are your thoughts on this season so far?