The UFC is set to kick off its 2025 pay-per-view slate this Saturday with UFC 311 from the Intuit Dome in Los Angeles. The event will start things off with a bang as it will be headlined by two championship contests, featuring some of the best competitors in the world, including the top pound-for-pound fighter.
The lightweight championship will be up for grabs in a main event that sees one of the most dominant champions in recent memory set out to defend his crown yet again against a challenger he has met before. Plus, the bantamweight title is on the line in a co-main event that sees the champ coming in as an underdog and two light heavyweight contenders will meet for a chance to stay in the title picture.
Light Heavyweight bout: Jiri Prochazka vs. Jamahal Hill
This is a very interesting matchup because both of these guys are ranked near the top of the light heavyweight class, but they are also both coming off of knockout losses to current champion Alex Pereira. So while neither one has a likely claim to being next in line for a championship opportunity, a win here would help to keep them in contention. For Jiri Prochazka, Pereira is the only opponent to have defeated him in the past 10 years, so he is also looking to keep that statistic alive. Prochazka comes in with a 30-5-1 record and 26 knockouts. He’s a wild and creative striker with knockout power constantly coming from all angles. As he often does, he’ll likely look to make this a brawl.
Jamahal Hill is no stranger to a brawl. The former champion comes into this bout with a 12-2 record and seven knockouts. He’s a powerful striker who is typically more technical than his opponent in this contest, but he is also willing to stand and bang. If he can keep at range and stick to a strategy and not let Prochazka make this fight messy, he figures to have a bit of an advantage. That is much easier said than done though.
My pick: Jiri Prochazka via 3rd round knockout
Bantamweight Championship bout: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov
Bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili is a perfect example of not giving up on your dream. After losing his first two UFC bouts, Dvalishvili won 11 straight, with that 11th win earning him his championship. He now sits at 18-4 and is regarded as one of the most dominant grapplers in the game. In his last time out, he proved that by smothering former champion Sean O’Malley. Dvalishvili brings relentless pressure every time he steps into the octagon, but this time, things might be a bit different.
It s rare to see a challenger come into a title fight as a -325 betting favorite. However, Umar Nurmagomedov is not like most challengers. It has not been long since an entire UFC division feared the name Nurmagomedov and now the cousin of former lightweight champ Khabib Nurmagomedov has his chance to sit atop another class. Umar is a perfect 18-0 with seven submissions and is probably the only man who could step into the octagon and not surrender the grappling advantage to Dvalishvili. It will be interesting to see if either fighter changers their typical gameplan of pressing forward with grappling pressure here. If not, Nurmagomedov figures to grind out a decision.
My pick: Nurmagomedov via decision
Lightweight Championship bout: Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan
Here is a list of fighters who have successfully defended the UFC lightweight championship more times than Islam Makhachev…
That was it. The champ will be looking to make history by defending his crown for a fourth time on Saturday. Standing in his way is a familiar foe who brings dynamic striking and a winning streak into the octagon to challenge for the title.
Makhachev is as dominant a champion as we’ve seen in some time. He comes into this bout with a 26-1 record with 12 submissions, and has smashed some of the top contenders in the division, including Dustin Poirier and Charles Oliveiram as well as former featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski twice. The champ is a powerful grappler who is also improving in his striking game every time we see him, which presents a pretty terrifying notion for the rest of the division. However, I wouldn’t expect to see him come out with a striking-heavy gameplan here. He will likely look for takedowns and press his challenger against the cage.
Arman Tsarukyan has been in the octagon with Makhachev before. He surrendered a decision to the now-champ back in 2019. Since then, Tsarukyan has fought to a 9-1 record, including wins in his last four. He now sits at a 22-3 record with nine knockouts. And while he has shown some struggles with talented grapplers in the past, his last two victories have come against Beneil Dariush and Charles Oliveira, two top contenders with very strong grappling games. Tsarukyan has certainly improved since the first meeting, but this is going to be an uphill battle for the lightweight title.
My pick: Makhachev via 3rd round submission
UFC 311 will be held Saturday, January 18 at 10 PM ET. ESPN+ subscribers can order the pay per view for $79.99.